Demographic Change
Population Change, 1981-2008
Population change is one of the key demographic factors that affects the vibrancy and economic vitality of neighbourhoods, acting as a measure of housing demand.
Between 1981 and 2008, the UK population grew by 8.9% from 56.4 million to 61.4 million.
Northern Ireland has experienced stronger than average UK growth in this period (14%), while England is closer to the average (9.1%), and Wales' population has increased at a slower pace (5.9%).
Scotland gradually lost population between 1981 and 2001, with the total falling from 5.18 million to 5.06 million over the 20-year period. However, since 2001, this trend has reversed and the population had risen to 5.17 million in 2008.
Source: Regional Trends, 2010: Table 1.2
Migration between UK countries, 1991-2008
Migration between countries within the UK (domestic migration) can cause social and economic changes in neighbourhoods and affect housing demand.
Rapid increases in population can result in sharp rises in house prices while rapid decreases can lead to low demand and people leaving the area.
Within the UK, more people overall have moved from England to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland than have moved to it (8,000 people in 2008). This is a sharp decrease from the 22,000 people that moved from England to other parts of the UK in 2007.
Wales and Scotland saw an overall increase in the number of migrants from other parts of the UK from 1991 to 2007; rising from 4,000 to 7,000 people in Wales and from 9,000 to 15,000 people in Scotland. In 2008 this rise decreased to 3,000 people in Wales and 4,000 people in Scotland.
More people moved to Northern Ireland than left the country between 1991 and 2007. In 1991 Northern Ireland saw an increase of 3,000 people compared to an increase of only 1,000 in 2007. In 2008, a similar small increase of 1,000 people occurred.
Source: Regional Trends, 2010: Table 10.6
International migration 1991-2008
International migration to the UK, like domestic migration, can alter the composition of neighbourhoods and affect demand for housing and neighbourhood facilities.
Immigration can also place particular strains on the social amenities and other facilities required in neighbourhoods to create a cohesive and sustainable community.
England has been the predominant country of choice for international migrants, offsetting its population losses caused by people moving to other parts of the UK. This trend continued in 2008 despite the economic downturn, albeit with a decrease of 74,000 people compared to 2007.
Scotland and Northern Ireland have also seen increases in population from international immigration. However these increases are smaller than the increase in people moving from other parts of the UK. In 2008 Wales saw no net increase in international immigration.
Source: Regional Trends, 2010: Table 10.6
Migration and population change 2008
Migration-related population change was less of a factor in total population change in 2008 than in 2007 in the UK.
Less than half of the increase in the UK’s population that year was the result of international migration. Instead, other domestic factors such as births contributed more to population change in 2008. The greater increase in domestic population in 2008 impacts housing demand and neighbourhoods differently than high international migration demand, as international migrants are more likely to settle in urban areas, while domestic population growth tends to be spread more evenly throughout the UK.
Looking at each nation individually, migration accounted for approximately one-third of population growth in Northern Ireland, 43% of total population growth in England, and almost all of the population growth in Wales and Scotland in 2008.
Source: Regional Trends, 2009: Table 10.8
Actual households and household projections 1981-2031
This graph shows actual household numbers between 1981 and 2006 and detailed estimates of how many households there will be in 2031 (with the exception of Northern Ireland, where only limited data is available).
The total number of households has a direct relationship with the level of housing demand and is therefore useful to examine growth pressures on neighbourhoods. Household numbers in Great Britain have shown a continuous trend of growth from 20.3 million in 1981 to 25.7 million in 2006 (a 26.6% increase) with a further projected increase to 33 million in 2031 (a 28.4% increase from 2006).
The projected increase in household numbers across the UK suggests that demographic pressure on housing markets is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Source: Regional Trends, 2009: Table 10.15 and NISRA, 2008
Average Household Size Projection in the UK, 2006-2031
The projections of average household size provide useful information on changing housing demand, which has implications for the type and the density of new-build housing needed in the future.
Based on 2006 figures, Northern Ireland had the largest average household size at 2.55 persons per household, while England and Wales had slightly smaller household sizes of 2.32 and 2.30 respectively. Scotland, however, had the smaller household size of 2.19.
All countries within the UK are projected to see a decrease in average household size between 2006 and 2031.
Northern Ireland’s average household size is projected to drop to 2.27 in 2031. A similar reduction is also projected for England at 2.13 people per household and for Wales at 2.03 people. Scotland is the only country with a projected household size of less than 2 people (at 1.93).
With smaller household sizes, the pressure for providing larger family homes may lessen in the future. However, household size projections do not reflect housing preference and aspirations and thus should not be used as the sole consideration when planning for future housing provision.
Source: CLG, 2009; StatsWales, 2009; Scottish Government, 2009; NISRA, 2008