Demographic Change
Population change 1981-2007
Population change is one of the key demographic factors that affects the vibrancy and economic vitality of neighbourhoods, acting as a measure of housing demand.
Between 1981 and 2007, the UK population grew by 8.2% from 56.4 million to 61 million.
Northern Ireland has experienced stronger than average UK growth in this period (14%), while England is closer to the average (9.1%), and Wales' population has increased at a slower pace (5.9%).
Scotland gradually lost population between 1981 and 2001, with the total falling from 5.18 million to 5.06 million over the 20-year period. However, since 2001, this trend has reversed and the population had risen to 5.14 million in 2007.
Source: Regional Trends, 2009: Table 1.2
Migration between UK countries, 1991-2007
Migration between countries within the UK (domestic migration) can cause social and economic changes in neighbourhoods and affect housing demand.
Rapid increases in population can result in sharp rises in house prices while rapid decreases can lead to low demand and people leaving the area.
Within the UK, more people overall have moved from England to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland than have moved to it (22,000 people in 2007).
Wales and Scotland saw an overall increase in the number of migrants from other parts of the UK from 1991 to 2007; rising from 4,000 to 7,000 people in Wales and from 9,000 to 15,000 people in Scotland.
More people moved to Northern Ireland than left the country, but the overall increase dropped from 3,000 in 1991 to 1,000 in 2007.
Source: Regional Trends, 2009: Table 10.6
International migration 1991-2007
International migration to the UK, like domestic migration, can alter the composition of neighbourhoods and affect demand for housing and neighbourhood facilities.
Immigration can also place particular strains on the social amenities and other facilities required in neighbourhoods to create a cohesive and sustainable community.
England has been the predominant country of choice for international migrants, offsetting its population losses caused by people moving to other parts of the UK.
Scotland and Wales have also seen increases in population from international immigration. However these increases are smaller than the increase in people moving from other parts of the UK.
Source: Regional Trends, 2009: Table 10.6
Migration and population change 2007
The population in all UK countries increased in 2007 due to migration within the UK and migration from other countries.
More than half of the increase in the UK’s population that year was the result of migration rather than other factors such as new births, highlighting how domestic and international migration shape housing demand and neighbourhoods.
Looking at each nation individually, migration accounted for approximately half of total population growth in England and Northern Ireland and almost all population growth in Wales and Scotland.
Source: Regional Trends, 2009: Table 10.8
Household projections 1981-2007
This graph shows actual household numbers between 1981 and 2006 and detailed estimates of how many households there will be in 2031 (with the exception of Northern Ireland, where only limited data is available).
The total number of households has a direct relationship with the level of housing demand and is therefore useful to examine growth pressures on neighbourhoods.
Household numbers in Great Britain have shown a continuous trend of growth from 20.3 million in 1981 to 25.1 million in 2006 (a 23.7% increase) with a further projected increase to 32.1 million in 2031 (a 28.2% increase from 2006).
The projected increase in household numbers across the UK suggests that demographic pressure on housing markets is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Source: Regional Trends, 2009: Table 10.15 and NISRA, 2008